I've often told experts that the ongoing struggle between Iran and Israel is less about religion and more about regional dominance—specifically, a rivalry playing out across Sunni-majority territories. Though they may appear as ideological opposites, the two nations share more in common than many might expect—especially when it comes to strategic goals and the use of religious narratives to justify state policy.
Both Iran and Israel consistently stir debate in political and religious circles alike. Their distinctive governing systems, expansive regional ambitions, complex relationships with Sunni states, and the international support they receive make them central players in any discussion of Middle Eastern geopolitics.
This article explores their similarities and differences across three key dimensions:
- Demographic and religious identity
- Messianic doctrine and salvation narratives
- Geopolitical influence and international alliances
We will also examine the link between U.S. support for Israel and Evangelical Christian theology, drawing on the work of Dr. Safar Al-Hawali in The True Promise and the Fabricated One, as well as the writings of Hal Lindsey and Tim LaHaye, who frame American-Israeli relations within the context of end-times prophecy.
I. Demographic and Religious Identity Israel: A Jewish State or a Minority in Control?
When the State of Israel was established in 1948, Jews made up roughly one-third of the population in historic Palestine—around 650,000 people. Over the following decades, large-scale Jewish immigration dramatically shifted the country's demographic makeup. By the end of 2023, Jews comprised 73.6% of Israel's population, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). In contrast, Palestinian Arabs—including citizens—made up 21.1%, while the remaining 5.3% included non-Arab Christians, secular residents, and other minorities.
In 2018, the Israeli Knesset passed the Nation-State Law, enshrining the state's Jewish character in law. The law declared that the right to national self-determination in Israel belongs solely to the Jewish people—a move that drew sharp criticism from Palestinian communities and international human rights groups, who viewed it as discriminatory and exclusionary.
Israel has long grappled with what many analysts describe as a "demographic anxiety": the challenge of maintaining a Jewish majority while governing a diverse population. To reinforce its demographic dominance, the state encouraged waves of Jewish immigration from across the globe and implemented policies—both direct and indirect—that led to the displacement of native Palestinians.
According to human rights records and historical archives, over 100 massacres, both documented and unreported, occurred between 1947 and 2020, resulting in the deaths of an estimated 150,000 Palestinians. During this same period, more than 3.2 million Palestinians were forcibly displaced from their homes, turning a national conflict into one of the world's most enduring refugee crises.
- Iran: A Shia State in a Sunni Environment Iran is officially a Shia-majority state, with Twelver Shiites accounting for an estimated 90–95% of the population according to state statistics. However, unofficial estimates suggest that Sunnis may make up as much as 45%, particularly in ethnically diverse regions such as Kurdistan and Balochistan. Reports from IranWire and the Washington Institute have documented institutional discrimination against Sunnis, particularly in government appointments, education, mosque construction, and access to civil and political rights. The deliberate marginalization of Sunni populations is also reflected in official statistics and legal frameworks, often underreported or altogether excluded from national data. Beyond its borders, Iran has extended its influence into neighboring Sunni-majority countries—including Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen—through funding, military support, and ideological alignment with local militias. In doing so, it has played a central role in destabilizing Sunni political entities across the region. Many analysts view this regional strategy as driven by Iran's fear of internal Sunni growth and an effort to export Shia missionary ideology as a buffer against Sunni influence at home. Demographic Anxiety as a Shared Concern Both Israel and Iran, despite their ideological differences, exhibit parallel demographic anxieties:
- Israel, as noted in the 2023 CBS report, expresses concern over the rapid population growth of Palestinian Arabs, who currently make up 21.1% of the population.
- Iran, on the other hand, is increasingly wary of Sunni population growth within its borders, particularly in underserved regions. According to IranWire (2021), there is a pattern of obscuring or manipulating demographic data to reinforce the image of unquestioned Shia dominance.
- Iran: A Shia State in a Sunni Environment Iran is officially a Shia-majority state, with Twelver Shiites accounting for an estimated 90–95% of the population according to state statistics. However, unofficial estimates suggest that Sunnis may make up as much as 45%, particularly in ethnically diverse regions such as Kurdistan and Balochistan. Reports from IranWire and the Washington Institute have documented institutional discrimination against Sunnis, particularly in government appointments, education, mosque construction, and access to civil and political rights. The deliberate marginalization of Sunni populations is also reflected in official statistics and legal frameworks, often underreported or altogether excluded from national data. Beyond its borders, Iran has extended its influence into neighboring Sunni-majority countries—including Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen—through funding, military support, and ideological alignment with local militias. In doing so, it has played a central role in destabilizing Sunni political entities across the region. Many analysts view this regional strategy as driven by Iran's fear of internal Sunni growth and an effort to export Shia missionary ideology as a buffer against Sunni influence at home. Demographic Anxiety as a Shared Concern Both Israel and Iran, despite their ideological differences, exhibit parallel demographic anxieties:
II. Religious Doctrine and the Awaited Savior Shia Messianism: Awaiting the Hidden Imam A central tenet of Twelver Shiism is the belief in the return of Imam al-Mahdi, a messianic figure who is said to have gone into occultation and will one day reappear to establish justice. This eschatological belief plays a pivotal role in Iran's political narrative, often invoked to legitimize the regime's regional ambitions. In his seminal work Al-Ghaybah, classical scholar Sheikh al-Tusi (pp. 112–115) elaborates on the concept of the Mahdi's return. A 2020 report by the Rasanah International Institute for Iranian Studies underscores how Iran actively incorporates Mahdist symbolism into both its domestic and foreign policy discourse, portraying the Islamic Republic as the protector and promoter of this awaited future. According to the March 2020 edition of Rasanah's report, "Iran uses the concept of al-Mahdi's reappearance to bolster regime legitimacy and justify its interventionist regional policies, embedding the imagery of 'awaiting the Mahdi' in official state narratives." What distinguishes this vision from mainstream Islamic belief is the nature of the Mahdi's anticipated rule. In several Shia sources—such as History of Post-Appearance—it is cited that the Mahdi will not govern based on the laws of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him), but rather by the laws of Prophet David. As narrated by Abu Ja'far: "When the Qa'im [the Mahdi] of the family of Muhammad rises, he will rule by the law of David and will not ask for evidence." This theological outlook has sparked considerable debate, especially given the striking resemblance between the Shia Mahdi's judicial model and the one espoused in Israel, where the legal and spiritual foundation also draws heavily from the heritage of Davidic law. While the two states are often seen as antagonists, some scholars suggest that their eschatological visions reveal an unexpected convergence in how both foresee their "redeemer" figures.
- Shared Vision of "Salvation Through Great Conflict" This belief is not confined to Judaism. American Evangelicals—many of whom are politically influential—share and actively promote a parallel theological framework. They believe that the return of the Jews to the Holy Land is a necessary precursor to the Second Coming of Christ. This will be followed by a cataclysmic confrontation—Armageddon—which reshapes global history, as foretold in apocalyptic scriptures such as Zechariah 12:1–3. A key text in this movement is Hal Lindsey's The Late Great Planet Earth (1970), which links the gathering of Jews in Palestine with the End Times. This theology not only justifies unwavering support for Israel, but also frames regional conflict as a divine inevitability. Similarly, certain Talmudic interpretations frame violent regional upheaval as a necessary step toward establishing "Greater Israel," often involving conflict with surrounding Arab populations. On the other side, Twelver Shia Islam espouses a comparable narrative of redemption through chaos. The return of the Mahdi, the Shia messianic figure, is tied to widespread conflict in the region. As cited in Bihar al-Anwar (vol. 52, p. 349), Imam Ja'far al-Sadiq is reported to have said: "Nothing remains between us and the Arabs except slaughter," while motioning to his throat. This hadith has been interpreted by some scholars as an eschatological anticipation of violent confrontation with Sunni Arabs, particularly those in regions surrounding Iran. It echoes the idea of redemptive violence as a prerequisite for the Mahdi's appearance—much like the Evangelical reading of Armageddon. Indeed, as Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins write in their Left Behind series (1995): "The return of the Jews to the Holy Land is not just a historical event—it is a divine step toward fulfilling prophecy, marking the beginning of the end times." (p. 73) III. Geopolitical Conflicts and International Backing Strategic Expansion and Foreign Endorsement Both Israel and Iran emerged with strategic colonial attention—their borders and foundations shaped in part by external powers with long-term geopolitical aims. From their inception, both states have functioned as geopolitical wedges in the heart of the Sunni world, often obstructing unity and reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East. Yet, there is a key difference: consistency of international support.
- Israel, for example, annexed East Jerusalem in 1980 and the Golan Heights in 1981, facing little more than symbolic condemnation—despite UN Resolution 478 declaring these actions illegal. No effective sanctions followed, and international relations continued largely unaffected.
- Iran, on the other hand, seized control of the Greater and Lesser Tunbs and Abu Musa islands in 1971 after the British withdrawal. This move sparked an unresolved territorial dispute with the United Arab Emirates, which remains contested to this day (Encyclopedia Britannica, p. 234).
- A Battle of Influence or Faith? While the rivalry between Israel and Iran is often framed as geopolitical, it is deeply ideological at its core. According to a 2021 Oxford Academic analysis, both countries are vying for influence over Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. But beneath the surface lies a more profound motivation:
- American Evangelicals view Israel as a divine instrument, destined to fulfill biblical prophecy and thus deserving of unwavering support.
- Iranian leaders, on the other hand, believe that the Mahdi—the awaited Shia savior—will return to establish Shia rule, and that it is their duty to prepare the region for his arrival, even if that means expanding their influence through force.
Temporary Cooperation Against Sunni Forces Despite open hostilities, covert intelligence cooperation has reportedly occurred between Israel and Iran in select contexts—particularly against Sunni extremist groups like ISIS. Although unconfirmed in official channels, a 2020 analysis by the Hoover Institution noted that this cooperation is interest-driven and limited in scope.
For instance, Israel has struck ISIS positions within Iranian-controlled zones, while Iran has largely turned a blind eye, opting not to retaliate in order to protect its broader strategic interests. IV. The Biggest Loser: The Sunni Bloc A Shared Target Whether Israel or Iran gains the upper hand in this regional contest, the greatest strategic loser is the Sunni bloc. Both states see Sunni Arabs as a demographic or ideological threat:- Israel views them through the lens of a demographic imbalance, particularly with the growing Palestinian population.
- Iran, meanwhile, seeks to expand its Shia influence by backing armed proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, threatening the cohesion of Sunni political and religious leadership across the Arab world.
Turkey and Syria: Strategic Balance and Opportunity For Sunni-led powers like Turkey and Syria, the best-case scenario is not an outright victory for either side—but a long-term balance of power that leads to mutual exhaustion. This would not only weaken Israeli and Iranian dominance but may also create space for a new Sunni-led regional force to emerge. Turkey, with its geopolitical location, economic capacity, and regional experience—particularly in Syria and Libya—could be uniquely positioned to lead such a realignment. Key Takeaways: Similarities and Differences After reviewing the ideological, demographic, and geopolitical trajectories of both nations, several clear patterns emerge:
- Similarities:
- Both Iran and Israel use religious narratives to justify state policies.
- Both are dominated by a religious majority (Shiites in Iran, Jews in Israel) with strong theological motivations.
- Both express concern over Sunni growth and influence, leading to overlapping zones of aggression and shared victims.
- Differences:
- Religious ideology: Shia theology vs. Jewish Zionism.
- Political structure: Iran is a clerical state under Vilayat-e Faqih, while Israel is a secular state with a biblical foundation.
- International support: Israel enjoys full Western backing, whereas Iran faces sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
Religious Hypotheses and Controversies Some Evangelical interpretations suggest that Protestant America supports Israel not to preserve it, but to fulfill end-times prophecies that involve the destruction of the Jewish people.
This theory, heavily cited by Dr. Safar Al-Hawali in The True Promise and the Fabricated One, is not part of mainstream U.S. foreign policy, yet it is well-documented in Evangelical literature, televised sermons, and academic discourse.
Interestingly, some ultra-Orthodox Jewish sects also reject Zionism, believing that Israel's existence hastens their destruction, and refer to the state as a "desolation" or "abomination". Final Reflection: The Regional Stakes The Sunni bloc is facing an existential challenge, caught between two expanding powers using ideology and force to reshape the region.
This underscores the need for Sunni coordination and strategic vision, not only to preserve regional unity, but also to prevent further fragmentation. What comes next will likely depend on how Iran and Israel navigate the post-conflict landscape, particularly as global powers like the United States, China, and Russia position themselves to shape the outcome.
The region's future, then, may hinge less on who wins militarily—and more on who is ready to lead diplomatically in a post-war Middle East.- References
1.CBS. (2023). Population of Israel on the Eve of 2023.
2.Rasanah International Institute for Iranian Studies. (2019). The Sunnis in Iran.
3.IranWire. (2021). Analysis: Official Cover-Up of Sunni Demographics in Iran.
4.Rasanah International Institute for Iranian Studies. (2020). Al-Mahdi for Shiites: Political Usage and Regional Strategy.
5.Lindsey, H. (1970). The Late Great Planet Earth. New York: Zondervan.
6.Al-Hawali, S. (n.d.). The True Promise and the Fabricated One, pp. 170–180.
7.United Nations Security Council. (1980). Resolution 478 on East Jerusalem.
8.Encyclopedia Britannica. (n.d.). History of the United Arab Emirates, p. 234.
9.Hoover Institution. (2020). Iranian Corridor: From the Shia Crescent to Global Power, p. 57.
10.Religion and Politics in America: The Rise and Impact of Evangelical Christians. (2007).
11.LaHaye, T., & Jenkins, J. B. (1995). Left Behind: A Novel of the Earth's Last Days, p. 73.
12.Council on Foreign Relations. (n.d.). The Israeli-Iranian Conflict: A Strategic Analysis.
13.Al-Musli, A. (n.d.). Haqiqat al-Shi'a [The Reality of Shiism].